Ricarda Anna Pasch
Title: THE ROLE OF INCUMBENTS IN SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS: THE CASE OF THE VOLKSWAGEN GROUP
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Erkki Karo
Opponent: Dr. Peeter Vihma
Defense: 8 June 2026
Abstract: This thesis examines the role of incumbents in legacy companies in shaping sustainability transitions, using the Deep Transition framework as its theoretical lens. It addresses the research question of how the role of legacy companies is depicted in Volkswagen Group’s internal Europe 2035 future scenarios. The study employs a qualitative content analysis of eight scenarios developed by Volkswagen Group Innovation within its Future Research – Societal Foresight unit. The analysis reveals that incumbents are consistently portrayed as ambivalent actors: while they possess the resources and capabilities to support sustainability-oriented change, their strategies largely prioritise incremental adaptation over transformative system reconfiguration. Across scenarios, investments in electrification, digitalisation, and shared mobility coexist with the persistence of individual car-based mobility and growth-oriented business models. The findings contribute to sustainability transitions research by highlighting the limits of incumbent-led transformation and the importance of external directionality for achieving a Second Deep Transition.
Keywords: Sustainability transitions; Deep Transition framework; Incumbents; Automotive industry; Strategic foresight
